99942 Apophis, having been relegated to a 0 in 10 on the Torino scale threat with a 1 in 45,000 chance of impact on earth, is still held to be the same:
On April 16, 2008, NASA News Release 08-103 reaffirmed that its estimation of a 1 in 45,000 chance of impact in 2036 remains valid.
Note that no mention was made on whether or not the Torino scale was increased or remains the same as well.
As part of an effort to develop viable deflection strategies, the B612 Foundation made estimates of Apophis path if a 2036 Earth impact were to occur.
The impact result is a narrow corridor called the 'path of risk' which would be a few miles wide. Countries estimated to be in the direct path:
* SOUTHERN RUSSIA,
* across the NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN (relatively close to THE COASTLINES OF THE CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO), then
* right between NICARAGUA and COSTA RICA,
* crossing NORTHERN COLOMBIA and
* VENEZUELA and over the CARIBBEAN ISLANDS OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO,
* over the ATLANTIC OCEAN to the WEST COAST OF AFRICA.
See 99942's Apophis' path of risk here (click the image to enlarge):
Using a computer simulation tool called NEOSim, it was estimated that the hypothetical impact of Apophis in the countries that are listed above and which are in the path of risk, would have more than "10 MILLION CASUALTIES".
An impact several thousand miles off the West Coast of the US would also produce a devastating tsunami.
So, we ask ourselves, what is earth doing about this - especially since we all pay taxes to our governments who are supposed to protect us?
Earlier this year in 2008, the Planetary Society organized a 50,000 competition to design an unmanned space probe that would 'shadow' Apophis for almost a year, taking measurements that would "determine whether it will impact Earth, thus helping governments decide whether to mount a deflection mission to alter its orbit." The society received 37 entries from 20 countries on 6 continents.
The commercial competition was won by a design called 'Foresight' created by SpaceWorks Engineering. The craft is planned to be launched in 4 years from now - namely, in 2012.
The winning design, Foresight, proposes a simple orbiter with only two instruments and a radio beacon at a cost of 137.2 million to keep mission costs on the low side. The spacecraft would launch aboard a Minotaur IV, leaving Earth sometime between 2012 and 2014. It would take Foresight five to ten months to arrive at 99942 Apophis. Foresight would then rendezvous with, observe, and track Apophis and would orbit the asteroid to gather data with a multi-spectral imager for a period of one month.
Foresight would then leave orbit and fly in formation with Apophis around the Sun at a range of two kilometers (1.2 miles). The spacecraft would use laser ranging to the asteroid and radio tracking from Earth for ten months to accurately determine the asteroid's orbit and how it might change.
In addition to the unmanned Planetary Society project, NASA's Project Constellation is researching a manned Orion Asteroid Mission, with 99942 Apophis being one of the potential destinations of the mission. The mission would use the Orion spacecraft to land astronauts on the surface of the asteroid that is intended to provide valuable testing for a later manned Orion Mars Mission.
Well, inhabitants of the above listed countries, may now be asking "What the f* however, an impact is ruled out. This close approach to earth in 2029 will substantially alter the asteroid's orbit, and more data would be needed to ascertain its new orbit and new impact risk the 2nd time it comes around in 2036/2037.
In July 2005, former Apollo astronaut Rusty Schweickart, as chairman of the B612 Foundation, formally asked NASA to investigate the possibility that the asteroid's post-2029 orbit could be in orbital resonance with Earth, which would increase the probability of future impacts. Schweickart asked for an investigation of the necessity of placing a transponder on the asteroid for more accurate tracking of how its orbit is affected by the Yarkovsky effect.
The Yarkovsky effect is a force acting on a rotating body in space caused by the anisotropic emission of thermal photons, which carry momentum. It is usually considered in relation to meteoroids or small asteroids (about 10 cm to 10 km in diameter), as its influence is most significant for these bodies.
Previous related posts:
Asteroid's Possible Collision in 2036 reduced to 0 (Jan 28th 2008)
Muriel's Blog: Doomsday comments
Credit: dark-sky-misteries.blogspot.com
